July 27, 2003
Arnold for Governor
1) Arnold Schwarzenegger will run.
2) He will win.
3) He will be better than expected.
Each point is based on the point that follows. That is, Arnold is the real deal, so I predict the Republican establishment in CA, still smarting from losing to Davis in the last election, will rally around a winner. And since he can win, he will run.
I think it'll be a mixed blessing to win this election--painful, unpopular decisions will need to be made to get the state government back on track. However, better to have those decisions made by someone who will take the right approach. Arnold may be just what California needs--and the right model for Republicans of the future. He's socially moderate and an economic libertarian. Importatly, he has good advisors, such as the brain trust at the Hoover Institution. Let's hope he listens to them.